Tag: recession
New Investor Survey Provides Additional Evidence of Regime Uncertainty
Writing for CNBC’s “Behind the Money,” John Melloy describes the findings of a recent survey of investors: Institutional investors fear a government policy mistake far more than inflation, terrorism, a housing double dip, a weak dollar, poor earnings or any other potential risk to the economy, according to a survey of 100 mutual fund,...
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“The Socialist”
From the synopsis for the forthcoming film, “The Socialist,” to be released in November 2010: Every age seeks visionaries to leave, in the wake of their genius, a changed world—but rarely are they found without a few strikeout also-rans getting a crack first. In 2008, millions of Americans thought they had found the real...
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Good Riddance to President Obama’s First Economic “Brains Trust”
Larry Summer’s announcement that he will return to Harvard’s faculty at year end, following hard on the heels of the resignations of budget director Peter Orszag and of Christina Romer, chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers, has summarily taken down the ornaments of President Barack Obama’s Christmas tree appointments to positions of influence...
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Regime Uncertainty: Reports Keep Coming In
Each summer, Wall Street strategist Byron Wien convenes a meeting of high rollers to discuss the outlook for investment. This year’s meeting brought together fifty individuals, including more than ten billionaires. Their expectations, as reported by CNBC, are gloomy: “They saw the United States in a long-term slow growth environment with the near-term risk of recession quite...
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Consumption Spending Is 70 Percent of GDP—So What?
It must be a condition of employment that a journalist who writes about the current recession include in his article the statement, “consumption makes up more than two-thirds of the economy” or “consumption spending accounts for 70 percent of GDP.” This seemingly simple, factual statement, however, is nearly always intended to carry some explanatory...
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Is Obama a Traitor to His Class?
As businessmen, including many who supported Barack Obama’s presidential campaign, continue to go public with complaints about regime uncertainty and its discouraging effect on the economy’s recovery, some observers are speculating that the tycoons’ animus is driven at least in part by their sense of betrayal: they had recognized Obama as a member in...
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The Misinterpretation of the Keynesian “Liquidity Trap”
Economists and pundits, who contend that the Federal Reserve System has little room to maneuver in using monetary policy to jump-start our anemic economy, often have claimed that America is mired in a Keynesian liquidity trap, a situation in which the demand for money is unresponsive to changes in market interest rates. After all,...
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Affordable Housing
Five years ago, as the housing bubble was ramping up, affordable housing was a big issue. Today, as housing prices have fallen after the bubble burst, I may be one of the few people who thinks housing prices are still too high. [Also see the recent book, Housing America: Building Out of a Crisis.]...
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Regime Uncertainty: Are Interest-Rate Movements Consistent with the Hypothesis?
Regime uncertainty has gained increasing recognition as the current economic troubles have persisted with little or no improvement since the economy reached a cyclical trough early in 2009. As described in my 1997 paper, regime uncertainty pertains to the likelihood that investors’ private property rights in their capital and the income it yields will be...
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This Week in The Lighthouse: Economic Recovery, Double-Taxing Energy, Afghanistan, Bullfighting
This week’s Lighthouse (available online here) deals with a wide variety of topics, including economic recovery (Robert Higgs), double-taxation of income of gas and oil producers (William F. Shughart II), Afghanistan (Ivan Eland), and bullfighting in Spain (Alvaro Vargas Llosa). Links to the individual items appear below: 1. How to Revive a Stagnant Economy...
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