How Successful Is DOGE?
President Barack Obama created the U.S. Digital Service in 2011. He proclaimed it would be vital in “getting rid of the pointless waste and stupid spending that doesn’t benefit anybody.” He put then-Vice President Joe Biden in charge of the initiative.
Like many initiatives led by career politicians to reduce wasteful government spending, it was virtually never heard from again.
The USDS remained invisible until January 20, 2025, when President Donald Trump renamed the internal executive branch organization with an executive order. Now known as the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency Service or just DOGE, the organization routinely makes media headlines. President Trump’s hiring of billionaire Elon Musk as a special government employee to advise the organization ensured that whatever wasteful spending it finds would be very visible.
Two months later, DOGE’s website identified an estimated savings of $115 billion, or about $714 per individual federal taxpayer.
Most of its estimated savings fall into two categories. The first category is actual savings from spending reductions in the U.S. government’s current fiscal year. This is money that was set to be spent before September 30, 2025, but won’t be. These are immediate savings.
The second category is savings from permanently ending spending DOGE deemed wasteful, but these savings will not be realized during the 2025 fiscal year. Instead, they will show up in future fiscal years because that spending will not be continued.
For example, consider the leases for buildings the federal government pays to rent but doesn’t use. DOGE’s estimated savings include money for the costly leases it canceled, which won’t be realized until the next fiscal year.
Most of DOGE’s big savings to date fall in a similar category. That’s why the path of government spending shows almost no change so far. The graph below confirms that result through DOGE’s first month of work toward its renewed purpose.
This chart also shows how uphill that task is. The Biden-Harris administration’s blowout spending during their final months in power makes DOGE’s task even more difficult.
How government spending patterns change will ultimately determine DOGE’s success. It’s safe to say that saving $115 billion is a strong start after just two months of effort. Putting government spending onto a sustainable path will take much more effort to become visible at the scale that truly matters.
