Tag: Politics
President Trump Will Be Reelected in November

In this presidential election year, President Trump faces lots of challenges, including civil unrest, massive unemployment, and questions about his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. But if I were a betting man, my money would be on President Trump to win reelection in November. Despite many polls showing Biden as the favorite, my money…
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Do Incumbent Presidents Always Win?

In a recent post on The Beacon, I predicted that President Trump would be reelected in November, because he is the incumbent, and incumbents almost always win. Here are incumbent reelection rates for the Senate and House of Representatives, but how about the presidency? Let’s consider presidential reelection rates back to the beginning of…
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After the Government-Engineered Recession, How Soon Will the Economy Return to Normal?

The arrival of COVID-19 has brought with it an unprecedented and uncertain situation in many ways. One uncertainty is that because the disease is novel, we don’t know its future trajectory. Another uncertainty is how rapidly governments will move to lift restrictions on economic activity. That is something government officials can choose. Yet another…
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COVID-19 Policy: Yet Another Intergenerational Transfer

There is still a lot we don’t know about the COVID-19 pandemic, but one thing we do know is that those most at risk of death are the elderly and people with other underlying health problems. While there is a small risk of death for people who are healthy and young, most healthy young…
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Government Restrictions Have Gone Too Far

The question about whether governments have been too restrictive, or not restrictive enough, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic will likely never have a definitive answer. We can see what governments actually did and what actually happened, but we can only conjecture about what would have happened if governments had done things differently. In…
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Health, Wealth, and Liberty in the COVID-19 Era

Americans in many states are protesting the government mandates that require people to “shelter in place,” prohibit traveling, and shut down businesses. The issue is being framed as a trade-off between health concerns related to a very contagious virus and the economic costs resulting from the government-mandated shut-down of much of the economy –…
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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Yields to Political Pressure on COVID-19 Policy

Florida’s previous policy of giving discretion to local governments was more sensible.

Why Is Unemployment Rising?

The obvious answer to the question in my title–that unemployment is rising because of the COVID-19 pandemic–is not quite correct. The virus is not causing unemployment to rise. The government’s response to the virus is causing unemployment to rise. I won’t offer an opinion on whether the government response, overall, goes too far or…
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What C.S. Lewis’s Screwtape Teaches Us About Politics

Americans, finally facing the prospect of the mano-a-mano portion of the 2020 presidential campaign, have already learned that previous complainers about the negativity, underhandedness, and attack-dog nature of politics didn’t know how good they had it. Abetted by technologies that increase the reach and power of smear campaigns and by mechanisms that allow far more money to…
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Will the Push for Social Equality Undermine Social Harmony?

Politicians, political theorists, economists, and sundry social critics have offered critical comments regarding America’s present state of disharmony. A recent book by Senator Ben Sasse (R-Nebraska), Them: Why We Hate Each Other—and How To Heal, captures these critics’ apocalyptic tone. He writes: “Why are we so angry?”; “We are in crisis”; “Something is really…
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