Trudeau Faces Major Setback in Toronto–St. Paul’s By-Election

During last year’s Liberal National Convention, Justin Trudeau delivered the keynote speech. He was animated and worked the podium to dispel rumors that he was no longer up for the job. Trudeau stared into the camera and spoke directly to his political opponent Pierre Poilievre: “They either say investing in Canadians is a waste of money, or that our policies are too woke. Too woke, he said. Hey Pierre Poilievre, it’s time for you to wake up.”

In a surprising by-election defeat in Toronto’s left-leaning riding (electoral district) Toronto–St. Paul’s, a Liberal stronghold for over 30 years, voters rejected Trudeau’s policies—a stunning reversal in the progressive bastion. 

The riding saw a significant shift as Conservatives managed a 19-point turnaround compared to the 2021 federal election, winning their first seat in Toronto since 2011. This outcome has sparked hope among Conservatives that Pierre Poilievre can gain more ground.

Despite sensing trouble, the Liberals remained confident about their chances. They sent 20 cabinet ministers to visit, highlighted abortion as a critical issue, and attempted to recruit left-wing city councilor Josh Matlow for his name recognition. Matlow, aware of Trudeau’s declining popularity, declined the offer.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, whose communication style is often criticized, described Conservatives as “really cold, cruel and small,” a comment that is reminiscent of Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” line. Trudeau jumped into the fray and said, “The vote in the Toronto riding was a precursor to the clear choice Canadians will have to make in the general election in 2025.”

This result signals challenging times ahead for the Liberals. Scott Reid, a Liberal strategist, noted that this loss highlights a significant issue for Trudeau, stating, “because it tells him in indisputable, undeniable, and implacable terms that his leadership harms his own party.” He concluded that the message for Liberals is change or leave.

The NDP also faced setbacks, receiving just 10.9 percent of the vote, a drop from 16.8 percent in 2021. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has struggled to present a strong alternative vision for the country. He has been criticized for supporting the Liberals instead of holding them accountable for their scandals. Any hope that the NDP has of becoming a relevant opposition party is quickly evaporating. 

Singh has yet to find new solutions to the country’s many problems. He reiterates the same old line on housing: we need more “cheaper housing.” He speaks about the right to freedom and then supports Trudeau’s draconian laws. Singh may eventually be ousted as leader, leaving a legacy of contributing to a cost-of-living crisis. 

So then, will Trudeau resign?

In his post-election remarks, Trudeau appeared humbled but did not acknowledge any policy failures: “This was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear your concerns and frustrations. These are not easy times, and it is clear, I and my entire team, have much more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel.”

If Trudeau could learn from history and appreciate that higher taxes do not lead to prosperity, eliminating the carbon tax and cutting taxes puts money back in people’s pockets, Canadians could then “see and feel” the real progress he speaks about.

Trudeau’s leadership is increasingly compared to his father’s political legacy. In 1980, he was 9 years old when his father came out of retirement to defeat Joe Clark’s Conservatives, whose government lasted a mere six and one-half months. Clark was young, struggled to lead, and, most of all, suffered from what destroys political careers: no charisma.

Justin Trudeau, hoping for a comeback similar to his father’s in 1980, faces a more formidable opponent in Pierre Poilievre, who, unlike Joe Clark, has shown strong media presence and quick thinking.

After nine years in power, the Trudeau government faces economic challenges, a perceived decline in living standards, concerns about free speech, and rising crime rates. A recent poll indicated that 68 percent of Canadians do not want Trudeau to continue after the parliamentary break.

Trudeau’s options are narrowing: he could shift the party toward the center, prepare for another election, or continue with current policies, which may further jeopardize his political future.