Search Results for ""regime uncertainty""

More Evidence Suggestive of Regime Uncertainty



I cannot vouch for this chart, which is described as showing the findings of a survey of investors by Citi, but if it is even in the neighborhood of the truth, it would appear to be additional evidence of regime uncertainty–major-policy uncertainty, fear of significant government foul-ups, call it whatever suits you best. I have not...
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SOTUS Doesn’t Dispel Regime Uncertainty



In a poll of business executives following Tuesday’s State of the Union speech, the Wall Street Journal finds most remain skeptical of President Obama’s new, business-friendly rhetoric, and confirmed that his policies to date account for the continued economic malaise. As encapsulated by Anthony Guzzi, CEO of Emcor Group Inc., a construction and facilities-services...
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Adam Smith on Tax-Regime Uncertainty



As Congress and the President consider yet another set of “reforms” for the federal income tax code, taxpayers should encourage them to heed the words of one of the first and greatest economists. In Book V, Chapter II, Part II of The Wealth of Nations (Modern Library, Cannan ed., p. 778), Adam Smith wrote...
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New Investor Survey Provides Additional Evidence of Regime Uncertainty



Writing for CNBC’s “Behind the Money,” John Melloy describes the findings of a recent survey of investors: Institutional investors fear a government policy mistake far more than inflation, terrorism, a housing double dip, a weak dollar, poor earnings or any other potential risk to the economy, according to a survey of 100 mutual fund,...
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Credit Shortage or Regime Uncertainty?



We are now mired in the third year of a recession produced when a housing bubble inflated by easy credit finally burst—as it was bound to do sooner or later. From the very beginning, government officials, among whom I include the people who run the Federal Reserve System, have proceeded as if the way to...
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Regime Uncertainty Evidence du Jour



It’s unfortunately getting easier and easier to find confirmation that “regime uncertainty” is the biggest drag on the U.S. economy’s chances of recovery. This, from a front-page story in today’s Wall Street Journal: The U.S. has ample resources to restimulate the global recovery. U.S. companies are sitting on some $1.8 trillion in cash—the highest...
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Regime Uncertainty: Reports Keep Coming In



Each summer, Wall Street strategist Byron Wien convenes a meeting of high rollers to discuss the outlook for investment. This year’s meeting brought together fifty individuals, including more than ten billionaires. Their expectations, as reported by CNBC, are gloomy: “They saw the United States in a long-term slow growth environment with the near-term risk of recession quite...
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Do the Post-Panic Changes in Corporate Bond Yield Curves Indicate Regime Uncertainty or Only Expectations of Increased Inflation?



On August 24, I posted some data and analysis on yield curves for high-grade corporate bonds since the beginning of 2008, seeking to determine whether changes in these curves are consistent with the hypothesis that the current economic crisis has given rise to regime uncertainty. If it has done so, the yield curves should...
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Regime Uncertainty: Are Interest-Rate Movements Consistent with the Hypothesis?



Regime uncertainty has gained increasing recognition as the current economic troubles have persisted with little or no improvement since the economy reached a cyclical trough early in 2009. As described in my 1997 paper, regime uncertainty pertains to the likelihood that investors’ private property rights in their capital and the income it yields will be...
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Regime Uncertainty Now Spooks Even Obama’s Former Big Business Allies



Big business leaders—heretofore merry shills for Obama’s disastrous policies—have finally woken up to the fact that such policies are bad even for those with friends in the White House. The Chairman of the Business Roundtable, a group whose support helped further ObamaCare, Cap-and-Trade, and any and all Keynesian “stimulus” spending, now warns: By reaching...
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