Search Results for ""regime uncertainty""

Government Spending and Regime Uncertainty—a Clarification



In view of my sixteen-year campaign to bring about an understanding of the idea of “regime uncertainty,” one might think that I would be gratified by the growing recognition of the importance of the closely related (but narrower) idea of “policy uncertainty” in relation to the unusually slow recovery from the bust of 2007-2009....
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Regime Uncertainty and Firearm Purchases



In a post entitled “Regime Uncertainty on Display—Gun Version,” George Johns at Sleepless in Midland argues that the White House’s rhetoric on gun control has been good (so far) for the firearms industry: Gun and ammo manufacturers and sellers are thriving like never before. And the reason is fear of Barack Obama’s ambitious drive...
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Krugman on Regime Uncertainty



Speaking of regime uncertainty, even distinguished mainstream economists get it. Here’s Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman: I think that the main thing keeping long-term interest rates low right now is cognitive dissonance. Even though the business community is starting to get scared—the ultra-establishment Committee for Economic Development now warns that ”a fiscal crisis threatens our...
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James Madison Analyzed Regime Uncertainty in 1788



In Federalist 62, published in the Independent Journal, February 27, 1788, James Madison writes as follows: It will be of little avail to the people, that the laws are made by men of their own choice, if the laws be so voluminous that they cannot be read, or so incoherent that they cannot be...
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Beyond Regime Uncertainty: Corporate CFOs Predict Worsening Future



Following on my recent post citing corporate CEOs’ complaint that continuing “Regime Uncertainty” forestalls their companies’ investing and hiring, corporate CFOs are today following suit, as reported by DeLoitte’s “CFO Signals“: CFOs’ expectations for sales and earnings growth both dropped precipitously this quarter, and their expectations for capital investment and hiring followed suit. The...
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Dodd-Frank and Regime Uncertainty



Peter Wallison on Dodd-Frank The question is why—why did this act have such a dramatic effect on the U.S. economy, essentially stifling the modest recovery that had begun almost a year earlier? The most likely explanation is uncertainty. The Dodd-Frank Act was such a comprehensive piece of legislation—and required so many new regulations before...
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Important New Evidence on Regime Uncertainty



When I introduced the concept of regime uncertainty in 1997, attempting to improve our understanding of the Great Depression’s extraordinary duration, I anticipated that many people—especially my fellow economists—would not welcome this contribution. Their primary objection, I ventured, would be that the concept remained too vague and, most of all, that it had not been...
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Global Regime Uncertainty



Dr. Brendan Brown, Head of Economic Research at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International (London), recently cited Senior Fellow Robert Higgs‘s work on regime uncertainty—both as the cause of the prolongation of the Great Depression as well as today’s economic malaise—suggesting that his premise could well be expanded to explain today’s global economy. In his Economic...
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Regime Uncertainty: Pirrong Debunks the Keynesian Debunking



As the idea of regime uncertainty has gained ground in recent years as a partial explanation of the economy’s failure to recover quickly and fully, economists and others invested in Keynesian thinking have begun to strike back. One such Keynesian debunking of regime uncertainty was offered recently by Gary Burtless and seemingly endorsed by...
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Regime Uncertainty and the S&P 500 as a “Fear Indicator”



Highly-regarded J.P. Morgan Global FX Strategist Ken Landon included the following in his email advisory on Tuesday: Here’s a tautology: it will no doubt be another volatile day. With confidence having been severely undermined over the past two weeks, risk markets will continue to be susceptible to bouts of extreme fear in both directions....
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