The “Green” Election Market Proxy
By Mary Theroux • Tuesday October 30, 2012 9:54 PM PDT • 2 Comments
With just a week to go, election predictors puzzling over the too-close-to-call polls, have a choice of numerous proxy market predictors, among them the 7-11 Cup Poll, Intrade, and the Iowa Electronic Markets.
And now: the Chia president. As reported in the San Francisco Business Times:
Chia Obama was trouncing Chia Romney 69.6 percent to 29.5 through September .... In the days following the [first] debate, Romney made up ground, narrowing the gap to 63 percent to 36.3.
However, as with the uncertainty surrounding the spread in the 7-11 Cup Poll:
Of course, given the uncontrolled nature of the polling done by 7-11 via coffee sales, several factors could be contributing to Obama’s coffee poll dominance.
It could be that Dems drink more coffee overall, or more wealthy Republicans can afford pricier Starbucks coffees. Or, it could be that many Romney supporters are quieter about their affiliation and opt for a non-partisan cup when selecting their daily brew.
So the problem with the Chia proxy could be that those choosing to buy Chia Obama over Chia Romney are doing so out of a desire to have fun at the expense of the candidate not of their choosing.
Buy Costumes has a presidential mask poll, and boasts 100% accuracy since 2000. They have Obama in the lead:
http://www.buycostumes.com/CategoryPage/presidentialmaskpoll_0.aspx
I would think the same would apply to the masks as the Chia-that they’d buy the mask of the candidate that they don’t want (you know, scary mask, scary POTUS!)-but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
MacGhil | Oct 31, 2012 | Reply
Thanks, McGhil,
That’s a really interesting site, in that they also have the state-by-state figures, which run largely contrary to the public opinion polls. 51%/49% national is awfully close. It gets more interesting when you drill down and see things like Ohio: 64% Republican; 36% Democrat; Wisconsin 91% Republican, 9% Democrat; and Nevada 50/50.
In any event, we should know what’s accurate in a week.
Best wishes,
Mary
Mary L. G. Theroux | Oct 31, 2012 | Reply