New Rasmussen Poll on Presidential Race
By David J. Theroux • Wednesday February 29, 2012 7:14 PM PDT • 12 Comments
As America heads toward “Super Tuesday” on March 6th in which primaries or caucuses will be held in ten states, the Christian Science Monitor reports in “Ron Paul poll shocker: He beats Obama head-to-head” that the influential Rasmussen Poll has released its latest findings of the views of likely voters in which the four Republican Party candidates are matched up head-to-head against Barack Obama:
How about this for a poll shocker: While everybody in US politics has been preoccupied with the Michigan primary, Ron Paul has sneaked up on President Obama and for the first time leads the incumbent in a head-to-head survey.
That’s right, leads—as in, ahead of, out front, winning, and so forth. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll released Tuesday, at the moment Representative Paul bests Mr. Obama in a head-to-head matchup by 43 to 41 percent.
The same poll has Mitt Romney tied with Obama, at 44 percent each. Rick Santorum is three points behind the president, according to Rasmussen, and Newt Gingrich is 10 points behind.
Meanwhile and as also reported in the Monitor,
In the RealClearPolitics poll average of the four GOP contenders, Paul remains in fourth, as the choice of 12 percent of Republican voters. He’s not outperforming that figure in any big March 6 Super Tuesday states, either. In Ohio, he’s at 10.7 percent. In Georgia, he’s at 8.8 percent. He’s doing a bit better in Tennessee, at 15 percent in a recent Vanderbilt University poll, but that’s still good for only third place.
The key here is that while Paul and his constitutional, anti-war, anti-Fed, free-market, small-government message does less well among conservative Republicans, as Forbes reported in January, he does extremely well among independents, especially young people, as well as civil-libertarian and anti-war Democrats, and in a head-to-head contest against Obama this could make the difference. In addition and as more and more conservative Republicans are exposed to news accounts of Santorum’s Big-Government record (see here, here, here, here, here, and here), Paul’s chances may decidedly improve among conservative voters.
Tags: Constitution, Culture, Elections, Federal Reserve, Free Market, Liberty, Personal Liberty, Politics, Presidential Power 
If I were not just trying to be provocative, but actually had a financial stake on a GOP presidential win (say, I had to bet heavily on beating Obama), and I had two choices: (a) Follow this poll and simply nominate Paul or (b) buck the poll and nominate Rommney, I would not bet. However, I would bet on a Romney nomination in which Paul’s philosophy is given the highest platform ever — what the appropriate political detail this would involve, is up to the pollsters. I think neither candidate/neither philosophy can do it alone given the sizeable advantages Obama and liberalism have over the opposition. This would be a victory for libertarianism; not a final victory, but one onto which more victories can be built.
MG | Mar 1, 2012 | Reply
That article you quote is NUTS on his super Tuesday chances, ONLY looking at southern states. He just got 20% in Wyoming (and a higher percentage of the delegates) and didn’t even visit there. His Super Tuesday states, after Washington where he will do very well which comes BEFORE then, are Idaho, Alaska, etc, not the southern states. He WILL, however, overperform with delegates in the southern states as those are awarded at caucuses by precinct to start the process, and he does well in quite a few specific precincts.
An educational campaign is only a ‘fallback worst case’, he is still in this to win.
KJ | Mar 1, 2012 | Reply
KJ, I believe you are confusing the popularity of Ron Paul among Republican voters in the primaries and caucuses with his popularity among overall voters. It is the latter that will determine the election and if the Republicans nominate another establishment candidate supported by the Old Guard, as they recurringly do (e.g., Dole, McCain, etc.), they will face a far more difficult race to win.
David Theroux | Mar 1, 2012 | Reply
Makes you wonder how Paul would do as an independent in a 3-way race with Obama, and Romney. Anyone aware of any polls that might address this possibility?
I know Paul says he doesn’t “plan” to run as an independent, but he hasn’t completely ruled it out either. Sure would be an interesting race!
Boris Molden | Mar 1, 2012 | Reply
Obama has been serving G.W. Bush’s 3rd term, Romney is an empty suit that flip-flops at the sound of camera shutter, Santorum has “issues,” & Gingrich wants to mine the moon. Ron Paul is the only true option we have and the more you learn about what he has to say, the more sense he makes. We should learn from the facts. D.C. is in bed with the Bankers, Wall Street, Monsanto, and all the lobbyists. We need someone in charge who tells the truth and will cut some of the bureaucratic bull crap out of “the system,” bring the troops home, secure our borders, and protect our liberty and our freedom as citizens of the United States. That’s why he’s ahead, as he rightly should be, in my opinion. The troops are his top 3 financial supporters. They didn’t go fight to spread “freedom and democracy” in other lands so that their’s would be gone when they returned home.
Sam | Mar 1, 2012 | Reply
From Indiana:
As a registered Republican I have to agree with the poll. I will not vote for Romney, Gingrich, or Santorum in May or November but I will vote for Ron Paul in the primary in May and again in November if he is the nominee. If he is not the nominee I might even vote for Obama just to spite the seemingly “rigged” Republican primary process. I am not alone in these sentiments in this area or I suspect nation wide and this is what the GOP has to be concerned about.
Why would I want to vote for a super rich American (Romney) who hides money in the Cayman Islands and embarrasses himself with his tax return data?
Why would I want to vote for someone who was censored for ethics violations (Gingrich), has cheated on at least two wives to pursue another trophy wife, would back stab his mother for his own personal gain, and is extremely cozy with big money lobbyists?
Why would I want to vote for someone so far to the right (Santorum) that it defies belief?
Until the Republican Party can answer these basic questions for voters how can they expect people to automatically vote for the candidate they select. With the exception of Ron Paul, the Republican primary field looks like a circus with a bunch of clowns. First one and then another gets to drive the little clown mobile around the ring as one after another falls off. I am glad Ron Paul is in this for the long haul. He is by far the best choice in this extremely weak field as competition for Obama. I don’t particularly like Obama, but with the exception of Ron Paul, he is the better choice. And no, I would not support Mitch Daniels for the presidency either!
Al | Mar 1, 2012 | Reply
I’m urging everybody in the states who haven’t had a primary to vote for Paul. Do you want him to be Pres.? Then quit making excuses and vote for him.
clay davis | Mar 1, 2012 | Reply
Ron Paul has my vote.
william reed | Mar 2, 2012 | Reply
I would have to say I am very pleased with the poll results, but I am more pleased by the flavor the discussions that it generates around the web. Until thinking individuals step up and vote, the election results will be senseless. I came across an interesting piece a few days ago that argues general speculation is leaning towards a Romney-Paul ticket for the Republican Party. The reason being that Romney has a ‘front runner’ status, to appeal to the Republican Old Guard voters, and that Paul has a higher cross-party appeal than any other Republican candidate. It doesn’t hurt that Paul just beat Obama in a national poll by Rasmussen. I think those who are asking the question ‘Which Candidate can win at the Republican Convention (which is largely what the Republican Nomination is about) are asking the wrong question. The right question is, ‘who can take enough votes on a national level against Obama.’ We already know that isn’t Santorum or Gingrich (they poll too low and too negatively nationally). So this is really a question of who will be President and who will be Vice President between Paul and Romney. And I suggest that as a possibility because they will each need the other on their side to win the Republican Nomination.
Little Boy In The Rain | Mar 3, 2012 | Reply
I would like to see both Ron Paul and Judge Andrew Napolitano. I know it will never happen because too many citizens have come to depend on the government for assistance.We have drifted so far from the meaning and intentions of the Constitution.Those who read the warnings and quotations from our founders realize that Ron Paul has been giving the same warnings for 20 years. Having heard most of his speeches they don’t change from year to year or day to day.Because of so much ignorance by so many of our government and its functions we don’t deserve someone who is trying to save our original Constitution and this country. I believe the founders would approve of Ron Paul and his defending of the Constitution. The AMERICAN CHALLENGE- What Every American Should About their Country is a book next to the Bible that should be in every patriots home.Those who say some of our founders did not believe in God and this country was not found based on godly principles should have AMERICA’S GOD AND COUNTRY Encyclopedia Of Quotations. The U.S citizenship Test is in the back. The number of naturalized citizens who passed this test was less than half. The politicians who took this test did even worse. Only 44% passed. Failures were evenly divided between democrats, Republicans, liberals and conservatives. “If we expect to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, we expect what never was and never will be...if we are to guard against ignorance and remain free, it is the responsibility of every citizen to be informed.’ Thomas Jefferson.Instead of taking our founders advice for the preservation of our country millions listen to and watch the propaganda put out by the corporate controlled news media. He have plenty of politicians in Washington.What we need is more statesman. At one time the greatest president in U.S. history, George Washington, had slaves and raised Hemp. It was used to make rope. Another good book is The Lives of The Signers of The Declaration of Independence.
Bob Marshall | Mar 5, 2012 | Reply
Let’s disabuse ourselves of the fiction that the Republican Party represents the wishes of America any more than the Democratic Party does. They are doing everything they can to keep Ron Paul away from the finish line, and cutting their own throats in the general election in the process.
Henry Bowman | Mar 5, 2012 | Reply
I CONCUR! i will vote RP. always have , always will , until we get him into office , this is or only “wright” option .
andrea | Mar 6, 2012 | Reply